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Blood, 1 March 2001, Vol. 97, No. 5, pp. 1219-1226
CLINICAL OBSERVATIONS, INTERVENTIONS, AND THERAPEUTIC TRIALS
Development of a prognostic model for grading chronic
graft-versus-host disease
Görgün Akpek,
Marianna L. Zahurak,
Steven Piantadosi,
Jeffrey Margolis,
Jon Doherty,
Robert Davidson, and
Georgia B. Vogelsang
From the Johns Hopkins Oncology Center, Division of
Hematologic Malignancies/BMT, and Oncology Biostatistics, Baltimore,
MD.
The disease-specific survival (DSS) of 151 patients with chronic
graft-versus-host disease (cGVHD) was studied in an attempt to stratify
patients into risk groups and to form a basis for a new grading of
cGVHD. The data included the outcome and 23 variables at the diagnosis
of cGVHD and at the primary treatment failure (PTF). Eighty-nine
patients (58%) failed primary therapy for cGVHD. Nonrelapse mortality
was 44% after a median follow-up of 7.8 years. The probability of DSS
at 10 years after diagnosis of cGVHD (DSS1) and after PTF (DSS2) was
51% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 39%, 60%) and 38% (95%
CI = 28%, 49%), respectively. According to multivariate analysis,
extensive skin involvement (ESI) more than 50% of body surface area;
hazard ratio (HR) of 7.0 (95% CI = 3.6-13.4), thrombocytopenia (TP)
(< 100 000/µL; HR, 3.6; 95% CI = 1.9-6.8), and progressive-type onset (PTO) (HR, 1.7; 95% CI = 0.9-3.0) significantly influenced DSS1. These 3 factors and Karnofsky Performance Score of less than 50%
at PTF were significant predictors for DSS2. The DSS1 at 10 years for
patients with prognostic factor score (PFS) at diagnosis of 0 (none),
less than 2 (ESI only or TP and/or PTO), 2 to 3.5 (ESI plus
either TP or PTO), and more than 3.5 (all 3 factors) was 82%, 68%,
34%, and 3% (P = .05, < .001, < .001), respectively.
The DSS2 at 5 years for patients with PFS at PTF of 0, 2 or less, 2 to
3.5, and more than 3.5 were 91%, 71%, 22%, and 4%
(P = .2, .005, and < .001), respectively. It was
concluded that these prognostic models might be useful in grouping the
patients with similar outcome.

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