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Blood, 15 October 2004, Vol. 104, No. 8, pp. 2323-2331.
Prepublished online as a Blood First Edition Paper on June 29, 2004; DOI 10.1182/blood-2004-01-0306.


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Submitted January 27, 2004
Accepted June 9, 2004

A computational model of human granulopoiesis to simulate the hematotoxic effects of multicycle polychemotherapy

Christoph Engel*, Markus Scholz, and Markus Loeffler

Institute for Medical Informatics, Statistics and Epidemiology, University of Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany

* Corresponding author; email: engel{at}imise.uni-leipzig.de.

Moderate intensification of conventional multicycle chemotherapy has recently been shown to improve treatment results in malignant lymphomas and might prove to be beneficial also in other malignancies. However, the feasibility of such regimens is mainly limited by their granulopoietic toxicity. In order to identify and quantify the basic cell kinetic mechanisms of damage and stimulation caused by cytotoxic drugs and rhG-CSF, respectively, we developed a mathematical model of human granulopoiesis which allows simulation of leukocyte concentration profiles under ten different multicycle polychemotherapy regimens with varying drug composition, dosage and scheduling, including rhG-CSF assistance. Clinical data on leukocyte profiles were obtained from large numbers of patients treated within several multicenter trials. Simulation studies show that the leukocyte profiles of all regimens can be appropriately fitted using one single set of assumptions and parameters for the cell kinetic effects of cytotoxic drugs and rhG-CSF. Furthermore, the model can be used to explain the interindividual heterogeneity of hematotoxicity by a differential chemosensitivity which might be useful in drug scheduling for specific risk groups. It is demonstrated that the model can be used to design and to select new drug schedules for subsequent clinical trial testing.


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