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Blood, 1 March 2005, Vol. 105, No. 5, pp. 1875-1880. Prepublished online as a Blood First Edition Paper on November 9, 2004; DOI 10.1182/blood-2004-01-0379.
Submitted January 30, 2004
Haematology Section, First Department of Internal Medicine, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Laikon General Hospital, Athens, Greece * Corresponding author; email: pangalis{at}med.uoa.gr.
We developed a clinical prediction rule for bone marrow involvement (BMI) in Hodgkin s lymphoma based on 826 patients and validated it in 654 additional patients. Independent prognostic factors for BMI were: x1: B-symptoms, x2: Stage III/IV prior to biopsy, x3: anemia, x4: leukocytes <6x109/l, x5: age >=35 years, and x6: iliac/inguinal involvement. Each factor was graded as xi=1, if present, or xi=0, if absent. A simplified score Zs=8x1+6x2+5x3+5x4+3x5+3x6-8 was assigned to each patient. The sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value of this prediction rule was 97.8%, 51.5%, 10.6%, and 99.8% respectively. In the validation group they were 98.1%, 40.3 %, 12.7%, and 99.6%. According to Zs value, 3 risk groups for BMI were defined: Low risk (Zs <0, 44% of patients, 0.3% risk), standard risk (Zs 0-9, 37% of patients, 4.2% risk), and high risk (Zs >=10, 20% of patients, 25.5% risk). Low risk patients (stage IA/IIA without anemia and leukopenia; stage IA/IIA, <35 years old, with either anemia or leukopenia but no inguinal/iliac involvement; and stage IIIA/IVA without any of these four risk factors) do not need BM biopsy. Standard risk patients should be staged with unilateral biopsy, but high risk patients may benefit from bilateral biopsy.
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