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Blood, 1 March 2005, Vol. 105, No. 5, pp. 1875-1880.
Prepublished online as a Blood First Edition Paper on November 9, 2004; DOI 10.1182/blood-2004-01-0379.


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Submitted January 30, 2004
Accepted June 16, 2004

Development andValidation of A Clinical Prediction Rule for Bone Marrow Involvement in Patients with Hodgkin's Lymphoma

Theodoros P Vassilakopoulos, Maria K Angelopoulou, Nikos Constantinou, Themistoklis Karmiris, Panayiotis Repoussis, Paraskevi Roussou, Marina P Siakantaris, Penelope Korkolopoulou, Marie-Christine Kyrtsonis, Styliani I Kokoris, Maria N Dimopoulou, Eleni Variamis, Nora-Athina Viniou, Konstantinos Konstantopoulos, Evangelia M Dimitriadou, Athina Androulaki, Efstratios Patsouris, Ipatia A Doussis-Anagnostopoulou, Panayiotis Panayiotidis, Vassiliki A Boussiotis, Christos Kittas, and Gerassimos A Pangalis*

Haematology Section, First Department of Internal Medicine, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Laikon General Hospital, Athens, Greece
Hematology Clinic, Theagenion Cancer Hospital, Thessaloniki, Greece
Hematology and Lymphoma Clinic, Evangelismos Hospital, Athens, Greece
Hematology Clinic, Peripheral General Anticancer Hospital-Metaxa-Piraeus, Piraeus, Greece
Third Department of Internal Medicine, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Sotiria Hospital, Athens, Greece
Department of Pathology, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Laikon General Hospital, Athens, Greece
Department of Histology and Embryology, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece

* Corresponding author; email: pangalis{at}med.uoa.gr.

We developed a clinical prediction rule for bone marrow involvement (BMI) in Hodgkin s lymphoma based on 826 patients and validated it in 654 additional patients. Independent prognostic factors for BMI were: x1: B-symptoms, x2: Stage III/IV prior to biopsy, x3: anemia, x4: leukocytes <6x109/l, x5: age >=35 years, and x6: iliac/inguinal involvement. Each factor was graded as xi=1, if present, or xi=0, if absent. A simplified score Zs=8x1+6x2+5x3+5x4+3x5+3x6-8 was assigned to each patient. The sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value of this prediction rule was 97.8%, 51.5%, 10.6%, and 99.8% respectively. In the validation group they were 98.1%, 40.3 %, 12.7%, and 99.6%. According to Zs value, 3 risk groups for BMI were defined: Low risk (Zs <0, 44% of patients, 0.3% risk), standard risk (Zs 0-9, 37% of patients, 4.2% risk), and high risk (Zs >=10, 20% of patients, 25.5% risk). Low risk patients (stage IA/IIA without anemia and leukopenia; stage IA/IIA, <35 years old, with either anemia or leukopenia but no inguinal/iliac involvement; and stage IIIA/IVA without any of these four risk factors) do not need BM biopsy. Standard risk patients should be staged with unilateral biopsy, but high risk patients may benefit from bilateral biopsy.


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