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Blood, 26 March 2009, Vol. 113, No. 13, pp. 2895-2901.
Prepublished online as a Blood First Edition Paper on November 6, 2008; DOI 10.1182/blood-2008-07-170449.


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Submitted July 23, 2008
Accepted October 21, 2008

A new prognostic scoring system for primary myelofibrosis based on a study of the International Working Group for Myelofibrosis Research and Treatment

Francisco Cervantes*, Brigitte Dupriez, Arturo Pereira, Francesco Passamonti, John T. Reilly, Enrica Morra, Alessandro M Vannucchi, Ruben A Mesa, Jean-Loup Demory, Giovanni Barosi, Elisa Rumi, and Ayalew Tefferi

Hematology Department, Hospital Clinic, IDIBAPS, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
Centre Hospitalier, Lens and Lille, France
Hematology Department, Fondazione IRCCS Policlinico S. Matteo, University of Pavia, Pavia, Italy
Royal Hallamshire Hospital, Sheffield, United Kingdom
University Milano-Niguarda, Milano, Italy
University of Florence, Florence, Italy
Division of Hematology, Mayo Clinic College of Medicine, Rochester, MN, United States
Unit of Clinical Epidemiology, Center for the Study of Myelofibrosis, Fondazione IRCCS Policlinico S. Matteo, Pavia, Italy

* Corresponding author; email: fcervan{at}clinic.ub.es.

Therapeutic decision-making in primary myelofibrosis (PMF) is becoming more challenging because of the increasing use of allogeneic stem cell transplantation and new investigational drugs. In order to enhance this process by developing a highly discriminative prognostic system, 1,054 patients consecutively diagnosed with PMF at seven centers were studied. Overall median survival was 69 months (95% CI: 61-76). Multivariate analysis of parameters obtained at disease diagnosis identified age > 65 years, presence of constitutional symptoms, hemoglobin level < 10 g/dL, leukocyte count > 25 x 109/L and circulating blast cells ≥ 1% as predictors of shortened survival. Based on the presence of 0 (low risk), 1 (intermediate risk-1), 2 (intermediate risk-2) or ≥ 3 (high risk) of these variables, four risk groups with no overlapping in their survival curves were delineated; respective median survivals were 135, 95, 48 and 27 months (p<0.0001). Compared to prior prognostic models, the new risk stratification system displayed higher predictive accuracy, replicability and discriminating power. In 409 patients with assessable metaphases, cytogenetic abnormalities were associated with shorter survival but their independent contribution to prognosis was restricted to patients in the intermediate risk groups. JAK2V617F did not cluster with a specific risk group or affect survival.


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